Who Shot the Sheriff?

The campaign for Dallas County Sheriff is currently one of the most watched political races in the state. It seems odd that a race for Sheriff would be so widely captivating but the race has drawn the attention of the Texas Democratic Trust as a must win election. The current Democratic Sheriff Lupe Valdez won the office in 2004 giving Democrats a foot in the door of the Republican controlled county. In 2006, Democrats swept every countywide race in Dallas County shocking many, and placing Dallas County into Democratic control. This time around, the GOP is going to be energized and on the offense trying to regain some of what they lost in 2006.
In 2006, an estimated 40,000 would be voting Republicans stayed at home. This time around that number is likely to decrease, and the Democratic Trust fears its voters may stay at home instead. A sense of comfort is felt from many Democratic voters after their gains in 2006, and their energy at that time may not be matched in 2008. The 2006 election came at an ideal time for Democrats as opposition to the War in Iraq and President Bush was escalated, as well as scandals among the Republican party which gave many voters a sense of corruption within the GOP. The Republican Party is fielded by three strong candidates who are vying for the selection by the party in the upcoming primary. A win by the Republican Party in this election might just give them the leverage they need to take back control of the county in 2010.
It is extremely difficult to predict who has the upper hand in this campaign and who will come out on top in the end. On one hand you have a Hispanic population who is growing and their voting numbers are increasing by about 2 percent each election, and on the other you have a highly energized Republican party with a chip on their shoulder. Whereas it seems the Democrats have the edge in potential voting numbers in the county, realistically the Republican population is far more likely to show up to the polls, and that may be enough to grant them victory.
At the same time, the Republican Party in general has been losing popularity among the American people, and even those in Texas. Two Republican officials switched over to Democratic lines earlier this year and just recently their was a slew of Republican officials in Fort Bend County who resigned over disenchantment with the party. Most likely, it will end up being a race based on who can dig up the most dirt on the opposing candidate like many local races have been in Texas. Whereas the Republican Party is pressing hard, the Democratic Trust has found ways to win unlikely elections and has the backing of many Washington operatives and strategists, and most important of all, they have the finances. In that light I think Lupe Valdez will come out on top, but if she doesn’t it may bring the Democratic Trust back down to human status and give the Republicans a chance to redeem themselves.

http://www.dallasnews.com/sharedcontent/dws/news/politics/local/stories/DN-jeffers_14met.ART.State.Edition1.cf41e4.html

- Garrett